Heat Pump Shipments Climbed 16% in February as A/C Volumes Slid Again
Dale Resnick
A 30-year veteran of residential HVAC who's crawled through more attics than he can count.
U.S. heat pump shipments rose 16% in February, the biggest February gain the category has posted since 2021, according to AHRI's monthly tracker. Central air conditioners fell nearly 22%. Gas furnaces slipped 5.6%. Combined A/C and heat pump volume came in at 638,841 units, roughly flat against February 2025.
That flat total is the interesting number. Buyers aren't delaying replacement, they're switching category.
What's Really Driving the Shift
Two forces are pulling on the market at once, and they happen to point the same direction. The A2L refrigerant transition pushed a lot of traditional-AC inventory out the door in late 2024 and early 2025 as distributors cleared R-410A stock ahead of the new rules. That left Q1 2026 comparing against an inflated year-ago base for air conditioners. Separately, electrification incentives and federal tax credits keep tilting contractor recommendations toward heat pumps on both new installs and swap-outs.
Gas furnace shipments have been quietly eroding for three years. The 5.6% February decline is consistent with that trend rather than a break from it. Most forecasters had expected something steeper given the heat pump numbers, so furnaces may be finding a floor driven by dual-fuel installs and by homeowners in cold-climate markets who aren't ready to give up backup heat.
For more on the bigger trend, see our full analysis of heat pumps outselling gas furnaces from last month.
What Contractors Should Watch
The practical question for California shops is mix planning for summer. If A/C unit shipments stay down 20% while heat pumps climb in the teens, stocking ratios need to shift accordingly. Shops that built their Q2 orders around a traditional split-system base are going to end up long on condensers and short on heat pump air handlers.
Pricing is the other variable. The A2L transition gave distributors cover to push equipment prices up roughly 10-15% in 2025. AHRI data suggests that premium is sticking, even as unit volume softens. Watsco said as much in its recent earnings; see our coverage of Watsco's record 2025 gross margin.
March and April data will tell us whether February was a blip or a trend. The cooling season answers a lot of questions about where the installed mix actually goes.